The Market Accelerates Rapidly Moving into Spring
There is a growing sense that in 2023 San Francisco hit its post-pandemic low
– economically, socially, and certainly in media coverage – and that it has
now begun a significant recovery on all those fronts. Most importantly,
confidence is rebounding in San Francisco’s future as a financial and cultural
center, as the heart, along with Silicon Valley, of the next big technology
boom (AI), and simply as one of the great cities of the world.
Along with substantial macroeconomic improvements in interest rates
(though they ticked up a little in February), financial markets – which
recently hit all-time highs – and consumer confidence, these factors are also
triggering a recovery in its housing market. This is now beginning to show up
across a wide variety of indicators as we move into the spring selling season,
typically the most active of the year.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of
unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad,
comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in
smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported
data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply
of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and
sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings
or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household
housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market.
City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will
be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be
considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,
views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and
so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality,
“unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price
for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and
basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are
usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported
altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.